A study of Platyplectrus Ferrière (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) in mainland China

This paper reviews the Chinese species of Platyplectrus Ferrière. Twelve valid species are recognized from mainland China and a key to species is provided. Trichoplectrus Erdös (1951 Erdös, J, 1951. "Eulophidae novae. Acta Biologica". 1951, Academiae Scientiarum Hungaricae, 2(1–3), 169–237. [Google Scholar]) is newly synonymized with Metaplectrus Ferrière (1941 Ferrière, C, 1941. New species of Euplectrini (Hym. Chalcidoidea) from Europe, Africa and Asia, Bulletin of Entomological Research 32 (1941), pp. 17–48.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) and three new combinations are proposed: Metaplectrus szepligetii (Erdös) from Platyplectrus, Platyplectrus bussy (Crawford) from Euplectrus and P. politus (Lin) from Metaplectrus. Four species of Platyplectrus were known previously from China: P. politus (Lin), P. odontogaster (Lin), P. papillata Lin and P. medius Zhu and Huang. Six species, P. bussyi (Crawford), P. laeviscuta (Thomson), P. natadae Ferrière, P. orthocraspedae Ferrière, P. pannonica (Erdös) and P. viridiceps (Ferrière) are newly recorded from China and re-described. Five new species, P. pulcher, P. setulosus, P. peculiaris, P. obtusiclavatus and P. variflagellum are described and compared with related species. Several species are also newly recorded from other regions: P. orthocraspedae Ferrière from the Afrotropical region, P. bussyi (Crawford) and P. laeviscuta (Thomson) from the Australian/Pacific region, P. laeviscuta (Thomson) from the Oriental region and P. viridiceps from the Palearctic region.     

基于协整理论的人民币/美元汇率组合预测模型

在人民币/美元汇率预测中,单一模型往往难以全面反映汇率的变化规律,为更有效地利用各个模型的优点,将不同的单一模型进行组合可以产生更好的预测精度.对ARMA模型、GARCH(1,1)模型、无偏灰色马尔科夫模型利用协整关系建立线性组合模型.实证表明:组合模型较被组合的各单模型的预测精度高.     

Forecast Combination and Bayesian Model Averaging: A Prior Sensitivity Analysis

In this study we evaluate the forecast performance of model‐averaged forecasts based on the predictive likelihood carrying out a prior sensitivity analysis regarding Zellner's g prior. The main results are fourfold. First, the predictive likelihood does always better than the traditionally employed ‘marginal’ likelihood in settings where the true model is not part of the model space. Secondly, forecast accuracy as measured by the root mean square error (RMSE) is maximized for the median probability model. On the other hand, model averaging excels in predicting direction of changes. Lastly, g should be set according to Laud and Ibrahim (1995: Predictive model selection. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 57 : 247–262) with a hold‐out sample size of 25% to minimize the RMSE (median model) and 75% to optimize direction of change forecasts (model averaging). We finally apply the aforementioned recommendations to forecast the monthly industrial production output of six countries, beating for almost all countries the AR(1) benchmark model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Revision of the genus Mimopodabrus Wittmer (Coleoptera,Cantharidae)

The genus Mimopodabrus Wittmer is reviewed, and the genus diagnosis is re-described. Three new species are described, M. multidentatus sp. nov. (Guangdong, China), M. variabilis sp. nov. (Yunnan, China) and M. diversefoveolatus sp. nov. (Lao Cai, Vietnam), with illustrations of habitus, antennae and aedeagus. A species is transferred from Micropodabrus to this genus, M. bicoloriceps (Wittmer, 1989 Wittmer, W. 1989. 42. Beitrag zur Kenntnis der indo-malaiischen Cantharidae und Malachiidae (Coleoptera). Entomol Basil., 13: 209–237.  [Google Scholar]) comb. nov. A species is synonymized, M. bicoloriceps (Wittmer, 1989 Wittmer, W. 1989. 42. Beitrag zur Kenntnis der indo-malaiischen Cantharidae und Malachiidae (Coleoptera). Entomol Basil., 13: 209–237.  [Google Scholar]) comb. nov.?=?M. bicoloriceps Wittmer, 1997 syn. nov. and the definition of M. yunnanus (Wittmer, 1993 Wittmer, W. 1993. Zur Kenntnis der palaearktischen und indo-malaiischen Cantharidae (Coleoptera). Entomol Basil., 16: 203–253.  [Google Scholar]) is restricted. A key to all known species of this genus is provided.     

A Neuro‐wavelet Model for the Short‐Term Forecasting of High‐Frequency Time Series of Stock Returns

We propose a wavelet neural network (neuro‐wavelet) model for the short‐term forecast of stock returns from high‐frequency financial data. The proposed hybrid model combines the capability of wavelets and neural networks to capture non‐stationary nonlinear attributes embedded in financial time series. A comparison study was performed on the predictive power of two econometric models and four recurrent neural network topologies. Several statistical measures were applied to the predictions and standard errors to evaluate the performance of all models. A Jordan net that used as input the coefficients resulting from a non‐decimated wavelet‐based multi‐resolution decomposition of an exogenous signal showed a consistent superior forecasting performance. Reasonable forecasting accuracy for the one‐, three‐ and five step‐ahead horizons was achieved by the proposed model. The procedure used to build the neuro‐wavelet model is reusable and can be applied to any high‐frequency financial series to specify the model characteristics associated with that particular series. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mortality effects of temperature changes in the United Kingdom

Temperature changes are known to affect the social and environmental determinants of health in various ways. Consequently, excess deaths as a result of extreme weather conditions may increase over the coming decades because of climate change. In this paper, the relationship between trends in mortality and trends in temperature change (as a proxy) is investigated using annual data and for specified (warm and cold) periods during the year in the UK. A thoughtful statistical analysis is implemented and a new stochastic, central mortality rate model is proposed. The new model encompasses the good features of the Lee and Carter (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87: 659–671) model and its recent extensions, and for the very first time includes an exogenous factor which is a temperature‐related factor. The new model is shown to provide a significantly better‐fitting performance and more interpretable forecasts. An illustrative example of pricing a life insurance product is provided and discussed.     

工学结合一体化教材的建设与创新

依据高职教育培养目标,通过课程改革的探索和教材建设的实践,提出了工学结合一体化教材建设＂五原则＂和＂四化＂的创新方向,探讨了在新的环境下如何编写适合高职教材的方法。     

判断矩阵凸组合系数的优化原理研究

对判断矩阵凸组系数的优化原理进行了研究 ,给出了判断矩阵最优凸组合系数的求解方法 ,讨论了判断矩阵最优凸组合的性质.     

履带起重机零部件需求预测分析

探讨了履带起重机企业零部件需求年度和月度需求的预测分析，从中发现需求的季节变化规律和发展趋势，并用它来预测未来各月份可能出现的需求，以便企业制订合适的库存管理策略，降低库存量，提高流动资金的营运效率。     

灰色预测模型特性的研究

对 GM(1 ,1 )模型特性进行了研究 ,证明了 GM(1 ,1 )模型是有偏差的指数模型 ,分析了模型偏差的特性 ,进而从理论上阐明了 GM(1 ,1 )模型误差的实质 .